Case Design
Case Design
Stronger Assumptions, Bigger ROI
In a world where AI is rapidly evolving from passive assistants to autonomous agents, agentic thinking is emerging as a critical leadership mindset. This presentation explores how leaders can harness the power of AI agents to transform their organizations, drive innovation, and create the enterprise of the future.
Methods
Proven elements of successful implementation
Value-driven
Better outcomes when assumptions are explicit, testable, and tied to value mechanisms.
Testable
Assumption-based planning + scenario tests improve ROI realization.
Collaborative
Stakeholder co-design reduces failure risk by surfacing hidden constraints.
Methods
Proven elements of successful implementation
Value-driven
Better outcomes when assumptions are explicit, testable, and tied to value mechanisms.
Testable
Assumption-based planning + scenario tests improve ROI realization.
Collaborative
Stakeholder co-design reduces failure risk by surfacing hidden constraints.
Methods
Proven elements of successful implementation
Value-driven
Better outcomes when assumptions are explicit, testable, and tied to value mechanisms.
Testable
Assumption-based planning + scenario tests improve ROI realization.
Collaborative
Stakeholder co-design reduces failure risk by surfacing hidden constraints.
Value
The Assumption-Driven Business Case
01
Anchor to Strategy
Tie each agentic use case to one board-level goal (revenue, cost, risk/compliance, insight). Make the value driver explicit.
02
Make Assumptions Explicit
Document them in plain language and numbers. Flag uncertainty (range + confidence) and evidence source.
03
Design Validation Loops
Define leading indicators, guardrails (ethics/compliance), and kill/scale thresholds before deployment.
04
Run Scenario + Sensitivity Tests
Stress assumptions with downside/upsides. Update ROI with each iteration.
05
Govern Like a Product
Establish assumption owners, review cadences, lineage, and evidence logs. Treat the business case as a living artifact.
Value
The Assumption-Driven Business Case
01
Anchor to Strategy
Tie each agentic use case to one board-level goal (revenue, cost, risk/compliance, insight). Make the value driver explicit.
02
Make Assumptions Explicit
Document them in plain language and numbers. Flag uncertainty (range + confidence) and evidence source.
03
Design Validation Loops
Define leading indicators, guardrails (ethics/compliance), and kill/scale thresholds before deployment.
04
Run Scenario + Sensitivity Tests
Stress assumptions with downside/upsides. Update ROI with each iteration.
05
Govern Like a Product
Establish assumption owners, review cadences, lineage, and evidence logs. Treat the business case as a living artifact.
Value
The Assumption-Driven Business Case
01
Anchor to Strategy
Tie each agentic use case to one board-level goal (revenue, cost, risk/compliance, insight). Make the value driver explicit.
02
Make Assumptions Explicit
Document them in plain language and numbers. Flag uncertainty (range + confidence) and evidence source.
03
Design Validation Loops
Define leading indicators, guardrails (ethics/compliance), and kill/scale thresholds before deployment.
04
Run Scenario + Sensitivity Tests
Stress assumptions with downside/upsides. Update ROI with each iteration.
05
Govern Like a Product
Establish assumption owners, review cadences, lineage, and evidence logs. Treat the business case as a living artifact.
Applications
Applications
Industries that benefit most from Agentic AI
Manufacturing
Mid-market, COO-focused quality + maintenance copilots to lift OEE and slash scrap with explicit ROI assumptions.
Insurance
Enterprise-level FNOL + triage agents with measurable claim-cycle and leakage deltas, governed by bias thresholds.
Pharma
Scale-up pricing/compliance agents with auditable evidence lines, scenario-tested under regulatory change.
Guidance
The"Strong Assumption" Card
Use this one-page template to document each key assumption in your business case.
Hypothesis & Benefit
Hypothesis: Because we do X, outcome Y improves by Z%
Unit of benefit: (minutes saved / error avoided / etc.)
Baseline & source: (value, date, system)
Expected delta & range: (point + low/high)Causal mechanism: (why the agent changes outcome)
Evidence & Indicators
Evidence so far: (pilot runs, benchmarks, papers)
Leading indicator(s): (early proxy that moves first)
Risks & mitigations: (data quality, model drift)
Kill/Scale rules: (specific thresholds)
Owner & cadence: (name, weekly/biweekly review)
Create one card per key assumption, and review them regularly as new data comes in.
Guidance
The"Strong Assumption" Card
Use this one-page template to document each key assumption in your business case.
Hypothesis & Benefit
Hypothesis: Because we do X, outcome Y improves by Z%
Unit of benefit: (minutes saved / error avoided / etc.)
Baseline & source: (value, date, system)
Expected delta & range: (point + low/high)Causal mechanism: (why the agent changes outcome)
Evidence & Indicators
Evidence so far: (pilot runs, benchmarks, papers)
Leading indicator(s): (early proxy that moves first)
Risks & mitigations: (data quality, model drift)
Kill/Scale rules: (specific thresholds)
Owner & cadence: (name, weekly/biweekly review)
Create one card per key assumption, and review them regularly as new data comes in.
Guidance
The"Strong Assumption" Card
Use this one-page template to document each key assumption in your business case.
Hypothesis & Benefit
Hypothesis: Because we do X, outcome Y improves by Z%
Unit of benefit: (minutes saved / error avoided / etc.)
Baseline & source: (value, date, system)
Expected delta & range: (point + low/high)Causal mechanism: (why the agent changes outcome)
Evidence & Indicators
Evidence so far: (pilot runs, benchmarks, papers)
Leading indicator(s): (early proxy that moves first)
Risks & mitigations: (data quality, model drift)
Kill/Scale rules: (specific thresholds)
Owner & cadence: (name, weekly/biweekly review)
Create one card per key assumption, and review them regularly as new data comes in.
Validation
Readiness Checklist
Evaluate your agentic AI initiative against these criteria.
Strategic Fit
Single OKR the agent moves; mapped to CFO/COO metric.
Clear "value driver" linked to P&L line.
Data & Integration
System-of-record identified; data quality risks logged.
Integration path defined; manual fallback documented.
People & Process
Who will change what, when (RACI)?
Adoption incentives and training plan are funded.
Validation & Governance
Leading indicators, thresholds, and guardrails agreed pre-launch.
Bias/drift monitoring and audit trail in place.
Validation
Readiness Checklist
Evaluate your agentic AI initiative against these criteria.
Strategic Fit
Single OKR the agent moves; mapped to CFO/COO metric.
Clear "value driver" linked to P&L line.
Data & Integration
System-of-record identified; data quality risks logged.
Integration path defined; manual fallback documented.
People & Process
Who will change what, when (RACI)?
Adoption incentives and training plan are funded.
Validation & Governance
Leading indicators, thresholds, and guardrails agreed pre-launch.
Bias/drift monitoring and audit trail in place.
Validation
Readiness Checklist
Evaluate your agentic AI initiative against these criteria.
Strategic Fit
Single OKR the agent moves; mapped to CFO/COO metric.
Clear "value driver" linked to P&L line.
Data & Integration
System-of-record identified; data quality risks logged.
Integration path defined; manual fallback documented.
People & Process
Who will change what, when (RACI)?
Adoption incentives and training plan are funded.
Validation & Governance
Leading indicators, thresholds, and guardrails agreed pre-launch.
Bias/drift monitoring and audit trail in place.
Scenarios
Assumption Stress-Tests You Should Run
These tests help identify which assumptions are most sensitive to change and require closer monitoring.
Data Drift Test
If input quality drops 20%, does ROI stay above hurdle?
Volume Elasticity
If case volume halves/doubles, do unit economics hold?
Behavioral Adoption
If only 50% of users adopt, what's the real payback?
Regulatory Shock
What happens to ROI if an audit requires tighter controls?
Scenarios
Assumption Stress-Tests You Should Run
These tests help identify which assumptions are most sensitive to change and require closer monitoring.
Data Drift Test
If input quality drops 20%, does ROI stay above hurdle?
Volume Elasticity
If case volume halves/doubles, do unit economics hold?
Behavioral Adoption
If only 50% of users adopt, what's the real payback?
Regulatory Shock
What happens to ROI if an audit requires tighter controls?
Scenarios
Assumption Stress-Tests You Should Run
These tests help identify which assumptions are most sensitive to change and require closer monitoring.
Data Drift Test
If input quality drops 20%, does ROI stay above hurdle?
Volume Elasticity
If case volume halves/doubles, do unit economics hold?
Behavioral Adoption
If only 50% of users adopt, what's the real payback?
Regulatory Shock
What happens to ROI if an audit requires tighter controls?
Metrics
Industry-Specific Proofing
What to measure first in your validation process. Focus on metrics that directly connect to your value driver.
Manufacturing
First-pass yield, unplanned downtime minutes, mean time to detect/repair (MTTD/MTTR). Tie to throughput and scrap $/unit.
Pharma
Time-to-evidence packet, compliance exception rate, price-erosion risk lead time.
Insurance
Claim-cycle time, leakage rate, triage accuracy vs. human baseline; DRG/LOB-specific loss impacts.
Financial Services
KYC time per case, recovery rate, false-positive reduction, analyst hours saved.
Metrics
Industry-Specific Proofing
What to measure first in your validation process. Focus on metrics that directly connect to your value driver.
Manufacturing
First-pass yield, unplanned downtime minutes, mean time to detect/repair (MTTD/MTTR). Tie to throughput and scrap $/unit.
Pharma
Time-to-evidence packet, compliance exception rate, price-erosion risk lead time.
Insurance
Claim-cycle time, leakage rate, triage accuracy vs. human baseline; DRG/LOB-specific loss impacts.
Financial Services
KYC time per case, recovery rate, false-positive reduction, analyst hours saved.
Metrics
Industry-Specific Proofing
What to measure first in your validation process. Focus on metrics that directly connect to your value driver.
Manufacturing
First-pass yield, unplanned downtime minutes, mean time to detect/repair (MTTD/MTTR). Tie to throughput and scrap $/unit.
Pharma
Time-to-evidence packet, compliance exception rate, price-erosion risk lead time.
Insurance
Claim-cycle time, leakage rate, triage accuracy vs. human baseline; DRG/LOB-specific loss impacts.
Financial Services
KYC time per case, recovery rate, false-positive reduction, analyst hours saved.
Realization
30/60/90 Validation Plan
Move incrementally and measure rigorously.
01
Day 0-30
Instrument baselines
Ship smallest agentic flow
Collect leading indicators weekly
02
Day 31-60
Run sensitivity tests
Update ROI ranges
Publish "assumption deltas"
Make decisions (hold/scale/pivot)
03
Day 61 - 90
Expand users and geos
Add guardrails
Lock governance cadence
Finalize owner roster
Realization
30/60/90 Validation Plan
Move incrementally and measure rigorously.
01
Day 0-30
Instrument baselines
Ship smallest agentic flow
Collect leading indicators weekly
02
Day 31-60
Run sensitivity tests
Update ROI ranges
Publish "assumption deltas"
Make decisions (hold/scale/pivot)
03
Day 61 - 90
Expand users and geos
Add guardrails
Lock governance cadence
Finalize owner roster
Realization
30/60/90 Validation Plan
Move incrementally and measure rigorously.
01
Day 0-30
Instrument baselines
Ship smallest agentic flow
Collect leading indicators weekly
02
Day 31-60
Run sensitivity tests
Update ROI ranges
Publish "assumption deltas"
Make decisions (hold/scale/pivot)
03
Day 61 - 90
Expand users and geos
Add guardrails
Lock governance cadence
Finalize owner roster
FAQ
Decision-Maker Q&A
How do I know my ROI isn't inflated?
Triangulate each assumption with at least two sources (system logs + sampled time study) and publish a low/most-likely/high range before you pilot.
What's the smallest proof that still convinces finance?
A 2-3 week pilot with instrumented baselines, one leading indicator that moved materially, and a pre-agreed "scale if/kill if" rule.
How do I de-risk ethics and compliance?
Add guardrails to the assumption card (bias tests, data retention, access controls) and log each validation with evidence links for audit.
FAQ
Decision-Maker Q&A
How do I know my ROI isn't inflated?
Triangulate each assumption with at least two sources (system logs + sampled time study) and publish a low/most-likely/high range before you pilot.
What's the smallest proof that still convinces finance?
A 2-3 week pilot with instrumented baselines, one leading indicator that moved materially, and a pre-agreed "scale if/kill if" rule.
How do I de-risk ethics and compliance?
Add guardrails to the assumption card (bias tests, data retention, access controls) and log each validation with evidence links for audit.
FAQ
Decision-Maker Q&A
How do I know my ROI isn't inflated?
Triangulate each assumption with at least two sources (system logs + sampled time study) and publish a low/most-likely/high range before you pilot.
What's the smallest proof that still convinces finance?
A 2-3 week pilot with instrumented baselines, one leading indicator that moved materially, and a pre-agreed "scale if/kill if" rule.
How do I de-risk ethics and compliance?
Add guardrails to the assumption card (bias tests, data retention, access controls) and log each validation with evidence links for audit.
Strong Assumption Planning
Putting It All Together - Your Agentic AI Business Case
Pick One Value Driver
01
Open the Frameblox Plugin in Framer and drag-and-drop ready-made sections and layouts to assemble your site in minutes.
Write the Assumption Card
02
Use the built-in color and typography generator to instantly create a consistent, on-brand look.
Run 30/60/90 Validation
03
Plug in CMS templates for blogs, shops, or portfolios, then publish your site faster than ever.
Govern with Explicit Thresholds
04
Plug in CMS templates for blogs, shops, or portfolios, then publish your site faster than ever.
This is how you scale agentic copilots without ballooning technical debt or stranding ROI in pilot purgatory.
Sources: This guide distills findings from a structured review of 50 peer-reviewed works on building strong, testable assumptions to maximize agentic AI ROI.
Strong Assumption Planning
Putting It All Together - Your Agentic AI Business Case
Pick One Value Driver
01
Open the Frameblox Plugin in Framer and drag-and-drop ready-made sections and layouts to assemble your site in minutes.
Write the Assumption Card
02
Use the built-in color and typography generator to instantly create a consistent, on-brand look.
Run 30/60/90 Validation
03
Plug in CMS templates for blogs, shops, or portfolios, then publish your site faster than ever.
Govern with Explicit Thresholds
04
Plug in CMS templates for blogs, shops, or portfolios, then publish your site faster than ever.
This is how you scale agentic copilots without ballooning technical debt or stranding ROI in pilot purgatory.
Sources: This guide distills findings from a structured review of 50 peer-reviewed works on building strong, testable assumptions to maximize agentic AI ROI.
Strong Assumption Planning
Putting It All Together - Your Agentic AI Business Case
Pick One Value Driver
01
Open the Frameblox Plugin in Framer and drag-and-drop ready-made sections and layouts to assemble your site in minutes.
Write the Assumption Card
02
Use the built-in color and typography generator to instantly create a consistent, on-brand look.
Run 30/60/90 Validation
03
Plug in CMS templates for blogs, shops, or portfolios, then publish your site faster than ever.
Govern with Explicit Thresholds
04
Plug in CMS templates for blogs, shops, or portfolios, then publish your site faster than ever.
This is how you scale agentic copilots without ballooning technical debt or stranding ROI in pilot purgatory.
Sources: This guide distills findings from a structured review of 50 peer-reviewed works on building strong, testable assumptions to maximize agentic AI ROI.